Forecasting Cannabis Reform - A European Review
Anticipating cannabis legalisation across Europe is more of an art than a science. We can’t be certain of future market sizing, or the policy developments that will get us there - but we can evaluate the conditions that help give rise to (or hinder) reform.
In a previous article we introduced Hanway’s ‘Legalisation Matrix’ - a visual representation of the factors which influence the likelihood of cannabis reform.
In this post, we show how this can be applied in practice across a selection of European countries.
On this diagram, factors and themes are broadly ordered by importance; themes from left to right, and the sub-factors within them from top to bottom.
Green boxes represent Positive Indicators - factors that are likely to give positive momentum to cannabis reform.
Red boxes show Negative Indicators - those likely to hinder reform momentum.
Orange boxes represent Influencing Factors, or ‘swing’ indicators. These are factors which are relevant, but could be either positive or negative depending on the situation - or are not necessarily positive or negative in and of themselves. For example, they may impact other factors to amplify or temper their effects and/or relative importance.
Which factors influence a country’s path towards cannabis reform?
Germany
Drug Policy: Germany’s government has announced a ‘paradigm shift’ on drug and addiction policy, with a focus on health and social outcomes that includes proper cannabis regulation as well as more a restrictive approach to alcohol
Public Sentiment: Hanway polling suggests that a large minority of the population (29%) are ‘neutral’ on the issue of cannabis legalisation - creating more space for reform than if there was more concentrated opposition.
Role in the World: As Europe’s largest economy and most influential state, Germany may have the ability to introduce bolder policies or push for EU-level reform in a way that smaller member states are less able to.
This theory will be put to the test in late 2022/ early 2023, when the government’s proposed approach to square the circle of EU legal restrictions on commercial cannabis reform is revealed.
Politics & Legal Framework: Coalition government composition was a key reason for reform - providing a clear area of common ground between the 3 parties.
However, Germany’s federal system means that even with parliamentary (Bundestag) approval, conservative parties in the country’s Federal Council (Bundesrat) may be able to block proposed legislation due to current political representation at the state (Länder) level.
Netherlands
Drug Policy: Long-running flexibility of the Dutch ‘tolerance policy’ towards cannabis use and coffeeshops may have slowed a sense of urgency for reform.
Public Sentiment: Hanway polling revealed heightened scepticism towards legalisation and its benefits - which may suggest a public jaded by the ‘halfway’ system that has long been in place and the negative impacts of e.g canna-tourism that it has caused.
Cultural Attitudes: The Dutch are socially progressive across many indicators - e.g. right to die, which complements support for socially-liberal issues such as cannabis reform.
Politics: A proportional representation voting system resulting in coalition governments has restricted pro-legalisation parties’ ability to push the cause in the past.
Role in World: The Netherlands has been willing to push the international community’s limits of ‘acceptable’ cannabis policy for many years. However, without support from like-minded nations such as Germany and Canada, the Netherlands would likely struggle to advance meaningful reform to cannabis laws at the UN or EU level.
United Kingdom
Public Sentiment: UK public opinion on cannabis is polarised - the question ‘to what extent do you support the legalisation of recreational cannabis?’ gives the highest levels of both support and opposition of the 8 countries we polled. This may make consensus-building for cannabis reform more difficult.
Politics: Neither of the UK’s major political parties back reform, although there is some support amongst smaller parties. The UK’s complex constitutional structure does not lend itself to court challenges on cannabis laws, with no recourse to public-initiated ballots - although a referendum could be called by the government on the topic. Recent suggestions that the UK Home Secretary was ‘receptive’ to upgrading cannabis from a Class B to a Class A drug shows how ingrained anti-cannabis rhetoric remains in UK politics.
Media: The media landscape is largely unsupportive of recreational reform, although the topic of medical cannabis is generally treated sympathetically. There is a large contingent of sceptical media not solely within the right-wing press, with a strong focus on possible risks to mental health caused by high-potency cannabis use.
Economy: Wider conditions for cannabis reform in the UK are broadly positive - open economy, easy access to capital & complementary agtech and CPG sectors etc. A thriving CBD sector has piqued consumer interest and comfortability with cannabis.
Role in the World: With no land borders and no longer an EU member, the UK may have political latitude to explore more ambitious models of legalisation in the future. However, outside of the EU, the UK also risks becoming a declining force on the world stage.
Sweden
Sweden may appear to have the hallmarks of a reformist attitude to cannabis like progressive leanings & an open economy - but the country’s political and cultural attitude to drug use confounds this.
Drug Policy: Swedish drug policy is markedly prohibitionist, with a ‘zero tolerance’ approach and the criminalisation of drug use. Access to both CBD and medical cannabis is minimal.
Culture: This is supported by a strong cultural aversion to drugs and social rejection of drug use - which alongside economic factors is a strong determinant of drug use in a country.
Despite its anti-drug stance, drug use continues to creep up - which may sow seeds for change in priorities and cultural framing in the future.Politics: There has been a rightwards shift of politics over the past decade, including the emergence of hard right-wing populism and a renewed focus on law-and-order.
For further insights into the future of European cannabis, contact our advisory team today.
